Amid China’s assertive push for reunification with Taiwan, whether diplomatically or militarily, the Indo-Pacific and the West fear a major war would have global repercussions.
Japan, recognizing that its economic lifeline and shipping lanes are at risk if a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan occurs, is making its previously ambiguous stance clear to China.
Under the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Tokyo has declared a “Taiwan contingency” doctrine, allowing the Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF) and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) to take military action if Japan’s security is threatened by a Chinese attack or blockade.
Takaichi’s clear stance on a Taiwan emergency has sparked diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions from Beijing, an escalation that is raising regional tensions to levels not seen in decades.
Now open doctrine
In the past, Japan was vague about how it would respond to a Chinese armed attack on Taiwan. Under the leadership of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan began shifting the JSDF toward a more militarized posture to counter China’s growing capabilities.
On November 7, soon after officially becoming national leader, Takaichi openly declared that any Chinese blockade or attack on Taiwan would constitute a “national emergency” for Japan, making it clear this could trigger JMSDF intervention – though specific contingency plans have not been disclosed.
First, the JMSDF could evacuate Japanese citizens, Taiwanese dignitaries and dissidents at risk of Chinese retaliation. Second, the JMSDF could conduct maritime patrols to block People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) reinforcements from the East and South China Seas.
Since Japan’s shipping lanes could be compromised by a Chinese strike on or seizure of Taiwan, such patrols would seek to safeguard Japan’s vital maritime operations.
Lastly, now that Takaichi has clearly stated her position, the United States could use its bases in Japan for any response if China invades Taiwan. Without the ability to use Japanese territory, the US would be less able to counter a rapid Chinese move to seize the self-governing island.
A Thatcher precedent
Former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher faced a similar threat when Argentina invaded the Falklands, then a British territory. An unfavorable outcome in 1982 would have toppled Thatcher’s government and tarnished the United Kingdom’s reputation. It also would have set a domino precedent for annexing island nations like Taiwan.
Argentina caught Thatcher off guard after she called the idea of a Falklands invasion “absurd” and “ridiculous.” This led to a surprise attack—something Takaichi is keen to avoid in Tokyo.
A major difference between the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands and a potential Chinese amphibious assault or blockade on Taiwan is that Japanese and American intelligence can easily spot a Chinese military buildup before it takes place.
Beijing would need to assemble a naval force, personnel and logistics that surpass those of the D-Day landings of World War II. Gathering such a fleet would take longer than Russia’s eight-month buildup of 180,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders before February 2022.
This window would allow Takaichi to direct the JSDF high command to prepare naval deployments near Taiwan and coordinate evacuating Japanese citizens, as well as American and Taiwanese officials.
War preparations
The Japanese government would also need to prepare for hybrid and information warfare. Japan is actively preparing for further provocative PLAN actions near the Ryukyu Islands.
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced plans to deploy the Type-03 Chu-SAM defense system on Yonaguni Island, a mobile surface-to-air missile system with a 48-kilometer range.
Situated in the Ryukyu Islands, Yonaguni is 110 kilometers from Taiwan and is crucial for protecting Japanese shipping routes from PLAN threats. Ishigaki and Miyako, both Okinawan islands, are known to house anti-ship missiles and surveillance equipment.
To counter PLAN threats, the JMSDF sent JS Chokai to the US to be fitted with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Eight more destroyers will also get these upgrades after a major Tokyo purchase.
No longer ambiguous
Historical examples show that a lack of clear deterrence can invite aggression, as seen with Argentina and the UK in 1982, or Egypt and Syria with Israel in 1973. By clarifying Japan’s Taiwan policy, Takaichi aims to forestall potential conflict and make China reconsider any aggressive plans.
A Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan would demand one of the largest amphibious operations in modern war history. Until now, China has weighed America and Taiwan’s resistance to an assault on the island, but now must also plan for Japan’s military response.
As such, Beijing must now either rush “reunification” at a time of economic stagnation or develop new plans altogether. Tokyo’s position could push back China’s announced 2027 plan for incorporating the island into the mainland by years.
All in all, Takaichi is taking a clear and deliberate approach to Japan’s Taiwan policy. As China responds with threats and provocations, Takaichi seeks to position herself as a decisive leader, reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher.
By signaling possible JSDF action, she has narrowed the window for Chinese military unification plans, forcing Beijing to reassess Japan’s readiness to defend its regional interests.
Julian McBride is a defense analyst and contributing editor at 19FortyFive
