U.S. exports to China through July of this year have fallen from the same period in 2018 — down 19.18%, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data. That’s not nearly as much as U.S. imports from China, which are down 34.62%.
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Four of the top 10 U.S. exports to China have increased in value since the beginning of the trade war in 2018, including two that are up more than 90%, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.
This might come as a surprise as the possibility of President Trump and President Xi meeting next week in South Korea hangs in the balance.
It certainly stands in stark contrast to the fact that eight of the top 10 U.S. imports from China in 2018 have fallen more than 50% since then, as I wrote earlier this week.
It also stands in stark contrast to the Chinese retaliation that has seen U.S. soybean exports (HS 1201) drop to zero for June and July, which is the latest data available because of the U.S. government shutdown.
This year, U.S. exports of oil to China are down 88.06% since the same first seven months of 2018, the most recent government data available.
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Indeed, U.S. oil exports (HS 2709) to China have dropped 88.06% in value since President Trump began the trade war in the spring of 2018. Cotton exports (HS 5201) are off 79.27%. Grain sorghum (HS 1007) is down 95.36%. Corn (HS 1005) is down 93.84%.
In the case of oil, China was able to look to Russia, which, in turn, lessened the impact of U.S. and Western sanctions against President Putin’s regime over his invasion of Ukraine. President Trump is now trying to get China as well as India to stop buying oil from Russia in an attempt to end its war against Ukraine.
Oil, the No. 2-ranked export now ranks No. 16, when compared with the first seven months of 2018 to 2025. Cotton, once No. 17 is now No. 70. Grain sorghum has dropped from No. 26 to No. 277. Corn has fallen from No. 180 to No. 484.
Oil, passenger vehicles fall more than $3 billion each
Because oil is the only one of the above four to be a top-ranked export, it is also the only one where the value of the decline topped $1 billion ($4.62 billion), when comparing the first seven months of 2018 to 2025. Even the well-publicized decline in soybean exports was less than $1 billion, though the primary export season, when the losses could mount, is October through January.
U.S. exports of passenger vehicles to China have fallen $3.24 billion since 2018, the second-biggest decline after oil exports.
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Passenger vehicles (HS 8703) are the only other U.S. export to China that has fallen more than $1 billion since 2018. The $3.14 billion drop, second only to oil’s decline of $4.62 billion, is equal to a 66.53% loss since 2018. Passenger vehicles then ranked third, behind the top-ranked category of civilian aircraft (HS 8800) and parts as well as No. 2 oil. Today, passenger vehicles rank No. 8.
Premature to declare victory
While it’s impressive that the primary aviation category and four other top 10 U.S. exports in 2018 have increased in value despite the onset and then escalation of the trade war with China, it’s premature to declare victory. Overall U.S. exports to the world have increased 29.33% since 2018 but fallen 12.01% to China. Imports from China, meanwhile, are down 34.62%.
Joining the aviation category among the top 10 exports to have increased in value since 2018 are computer chips (HS 8542), medical instruments (HS 9018) and liquid natural gas (HS 2711).
U.S. exports in the main aviation category plummetted because of two Boeing jet crashes and then Covid-19 but are clearly on the rebound in 2025.
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Generally speaking, these are once again good times for the aviation category, which is largely about Boeing. It is once again the nation’s most valuable export category. Two deadly Boeing 737 Max crashes, in October 2018 and March 2019 and then Covid-19 had been devastating for the company that was once the strongest and largely unblemished global symbol of American manufacturing might.
Exports to the world are up 16.57% and to China, the largest buyer in this category, 10.61% from the first seven months of 2018 when compared to the same seven months of 2025. China’s market share has dipped slightly, from 11.52% to 10.93%.
Computer chips are one of the two top 10 U.S. exports to China from 2018 that have increased more than 90% since then. More than three-quarters of the total leave from Los Angeles, Portland and Dallas Fort Worth international airports.
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Computer chip exports to China have gained market share since 2018, going from 14.42%, second only to Mexico, to 19.87% this year, and still second to Mexico. Exports to the world have increased 40.25%, certainly in response to the artificial intelligence boom, and 95.69% to China. Both former President Joe Biden and President Trump have used export controls to try to limit Chinese access to some advanced computer chips.
The medical instrument category is a broad one, including everything from sutures to large MRI machines. While I can normally drill down into the Census Bureau data to determine what specifically is being shipped, I cannot do so during the government shutdown. China’s market share of U.S. exports is virtually unchanged since 2018, from 9.59% to 9.90% – third after the Netherlands and Mexico – and its growth parallels the national average over the seven-year stretch, up 33.89% compared to the national average of 29.77%.
The Port of Houston has been responsible for more than 70% of the LNG exports to China this year with the Port of Beaumont and Port Freeport, both in Texas, accounting for most of the rest.
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LNG is the second of the four U.S. exports to China to have grown at a better-than-90% clip from 2018. The story is a little different here from the one with computer chips. Despite the value of LNG exports to China growing 94.55%, that is less than half of the national average of 210.56%. Consequently, the market share for China fell from 7.77% to 4.87%.
China’s response to the trade war, the statistics show, has clearly been an attempt to inflict pain on U.S. farmers of soybeans, corn, cotton and grain sorghum, much of it grown in the Midwest, while continuing to buy advanced American exports like computer chips and jets as well as an export that comes from a breakthrough, the hydraulic fracking of LNG.
